"Prepping for war? How Germany profited from the European arms race before World War I" @ Berlin

This early-stage project argues that the German Empire developed a significant trade surplus in war relevant products from 1900 onwards. Shortly before WWI, we would expect more exports to middle powers than to the Entente members. However, the data suggests that the German Empire profited from exporting to both blocks. It is an open question how the complex alliance system ahead of WWI and the late decisions of Italy and Serbia to side with the Triple Entente made it hard for the German Empire to identify friend and foe. This case shows that using trade data to predict the war is hard, but there is some indication that trade data can signal an arms race with increasing potential for conflict. I use yearly trade data on a product level from Hungerland and Wolf (2022). After identifying war relevant products, I compare the trade development with the middle powers and the Entente members.

Mar 17, 2025 2:00 PM — Mar 20, 2025 2:00 PM

Annual Confercen of Gesellschaft für Sozial- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte (GSWG)